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The Heart Failure Society of America’s 2026 HF STATS report estimates that 7.7 million U.S. adults have heart failure, with the number projected to reach 11.4 million by 2050. It also reports rising mortality and low use of the four recommended medication groups among patients with reduced ejection fraction; the report’s authors say better prevention and delivery of proven care are needed.
The Heart Failure Society of America’s HF STATS 2026 report projects that the number of U.S. adults with heart failure will rise from an estimated 7.7 million, or 3% of adults, to 11.4 million by 2050. The report also records an approximately 37% increase in age-adjusted heart failure mortality from 2010 to 2023, warning that the trend and gaps in treatment pose a growing public health challenge.
The report estimates that heart failure will affect 8.7 million adults by 2030, or 3.2% of the adult population, and 10.3 million by 2040, or 3.6%. By 2050, the projected total reaches 11.4 million, or 3.8%. The authors attribute the expected rise in part to an aging population, alongside increasing obesity, hypertension and other cardiometabolic risk factors. These are projections, not counts of future cases already observed.
Mortality measures show a worsening picture in recent decades. The report says age-adjusted mortality rates rose about 37% from 2010 to 2023, reversing more than a decade of earlier progress. For younger age groups, it reports unadjusted rates per 100,000 people from 2001 to 2020: among adults ages 25-44, the rate rose from 0.6 to 1.4; among those ages 45-64, it increased from 6.4 to 12.5. The report also says heart failure hospitalizations have declined among adults 65 and older but are rising among younger adults.
In treatment, the report highlights low use of guideline-directed medical therapy among people with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Real-world data cited in the report indicate that 18% of more than 3 million patients receive all four recommended medication groups: beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists and SGLT2 inhibitors. That figure concerns use of all four groups, not use of any one medication.
Rising Deaths and Treatment Gaps
The findings matter because they point to a growing burden alongside an opportunity to improve care. The report links projected prevalence to an aging population and common risk factors, while its mortality figures show that the burden is not limited to older adults. The increases reported for adults under 65 make prevention and timely recognition relevant well before old age.
The treatment gap also matters because the report and accompanying editorials identify established therapies that many eligible patients may not receive as a full regimen. Yale School of Medicine cardiologists Thiru Chinnadurai and Tariq Ahmad argue that care systems can help close that gap through electronic health record decision support, multidisciplinary programs and simpler medication regimens. The report does not establish that any single intervention will reverse national trends, but it identifies implementation as a practical area for action.
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How the Heart Failure Outlook Shifted
The HF STATS report is the Heart Failure Society of America’s annual review of U.S. heart failure data. Its estimates put current adult prevalence at 3%, while its projections extend to 2050. The report’s authors say the combination of rising mortality, younger age at onset, a larger at-risk population and gaps between evidence and practice places the condition at a critical point.
Heart failure prevalence remains comparatively low in younger adults, according to figures cited in the report: among adults ages 20-39, estimates are 0.1% for men and 0.2% for women; among those ages 40-59, they are 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively. But the report’s mortality and hospitalization trends have led its authors and editorialists to call for greater attention to risk factors earlier in adulthood, including screening and control of conditions that can contribute to heart failure.
“HF STATS 2026 reports a condition at a critical inflection point: rising mortality, younger age at onset, an expanding at-risk population, and widening gaps between evidence and practice.”
— HF STATS 2026 report authors, chaired by Eiran Gorodeski
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Limits of the Projections and Data
The estimates for 2030, 2040 and 2050 are projections; the report says they reflect expected demographic and risk-factor trends, but the supplied material does not detail the assumptions or uncertainty ranges behind each estimate. It also does not specify how much of the projected growth could be altered by changes in prevention, diagnosis or treatment.
The figures come from different periods and measures: age-adjusted mortality is reported for 2010-2023, while the age-specific unadjusted rates cover 2001-2020. The cited 18% treatment figure is drawn from real-world data on patients with reduced ejection fraction, and the source material does not provide its study period or details about how the patient group was assembled. The report flags racial and geographic disparities and a shrinking pipeline of advanced subspecialists, but the supplied account does not quantify those issues.
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Turning Evidence Into Routine Care
The report’s authors call for coordinated action across health care disciplines, institutions, insurers, policymakers and communities. They say priorities include prevention, earlier recognition, wider use of proven therapies and continued research. Editorialists point to practical approaches such as electronic health record prompts and multidisciplinary medication programs, while other experts cited by the report call for early risk-factor screening and control.
The next test is whether health systems and policymakers act on those recommendations and whether future data show changes in treatment uptake, hospitalizations and mortality. The report does not set a specific national target or timeline for those outcomes. Its authors say work to reverse the trends must begin now.
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Key Questions
How many U.S. adults are estimated to have heart failure now?
The HF STATS 2026 report estimates 7.7 million U.S. adults, or 3% of adults, have heart failure.
How many people could have heart failure by 2050?
The report projects 11.4 million adults, or 3.8% of the adult population, by 2050. This is a projection, not a confirmed future count.
What does the report say about heart failure deaths?
It reports that age-adjusted heart failure mortality rates increased by approximately 37% from 2010 to 2023. It also reports increases in unadjusted rates among adults ages 25-44 and 45-64 from 2001 to 2020.
Are recommended heart failure medicines widely used together?
Not according to the real-world data cited in the report: 18% of more than 3 million patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction were reported to use all four guideline-recommended medication groups.
What does the report recommend?
The report’s authors call for stronger prevention, earlier recognition, greater use of proven therapies and continued research. Editorialists also suggest care-system tools to help clinicians start and sustain recommended treatment.
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